This section represents the second part of an extensive transformational mentoring system, which serves as a foundation for the associated course. A link to the first module (#1) is provided at the end of this segment.

Let’s Get Started…

For a critical thinker, making optimal decisions is straightforward. This involves overcoming cognitive biases and integrating critical reasoning with intuition to arrive at the most PEEPASA—practical, effective, efficient, productive, accurate, and self-aware decisions.

Various methods exist for achieving this. One of my preferred strategies consists of three sequential steps:

1. Identifying your needs versus your wants,
2. The Journey,
3. Your End-goal

Let’s delve into each of these components:

1. Identifying Your Needs versus Your Wants: Many individuals have never truly examined the distinction between their wants and needs, leading to significant confusion and distress. In my mentoring approach, known as Harrison’s Applied Game Thinking (HAGT), I leverage principles from gaming psychology and sports to aid my students in making these critical distinctions.

2. The Journey: As the saying goes, "If you don’t know where you’re headed, any road will suffice, but it’s likely to lead you astray." Once your needs are clearly defined (as discussed in point #1), I can assist you in achieving greater PEEPASA. Together, we can formulate logical strategies aimed at attaining your desired outcome—the End-Game.

3. A Successful End-Game: It’s vital to ensure that your outcome is grounded in experiential content rather than merely physical objectives.

Example: Goals often focus on tangible achievements, yet unforeseen changes in the environment (termed "Black Swans") can create barriers to reaching those goals. This phenomenon is referred to as "The Theory of Obstacles" within HAGT. When your end-goal is based on the experiences you wish to attain, shifting circumstances become less of an impediment.

Let’s examine the concepts of Black Swans and The Theory of Obstacles. These ideas are interconnected in HAGT, as a Black Swan event frequently serves as the origin of an obstacle.

Understanding Black Swans A Black Swan event is an unpredictable occurrence that cannot be anticipated through conventional statistical methods because it has never happened before.

The term originates from historical European observations where all swans were presumed to be white, with no record of any alternate colors. Thus, the chance of encountering a swan of a different hue was considered negligible, almost zero.

However, upon discovering Australia, people were astonished to find black swans coexisting alongside their white counterparts.

The lesson from the Black Swan story highlights the error in assuming a stable environment. In Europe, if black swans existed, they may have gone extinct, or perhaps they simply never developed the gene mutation for darker feathers. This narrative illustrates a common misjudgment regarding life and decision-making: the assumption of an unchanging backdrop.

For instance, estimating a company's likelihood of bankruptcy might seem low, but it’s foolish to simply average all companies without considering the dynamic financial landscape. The backdrop is never static! After Amazon’s emergence, it should have been evident to those in the book-selling industry that the game had shifted, and their risk of bankruptcy was rising. Yet they had ample time and resources to adapt, but did nothing until it was too late.

The advent of digital cameras marked the decline of traditional film, while digital recording rendered video cassettes obsolete. Black Swan events, including the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the COVID-19 pandemic, frequently disrupt our lives in unforeseen ways.

These unpredictable occurrences continue to defy statistical models, as unprecedented events cannot be factored into forecasts based on past data. The constant evolution of the legal and financial landscape means that reliance on outdated models is misguided.

You cannot apply European statistics to describe conditions in Australia. This encapsulates the Black Swan lesson.

It serves as a broader metaphor, akin to Dorothy’s realization in The Wizard of Oz (1939) when she says, "Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore."

Recognizing when the environment has shifted is crucial, as is questioning the effectiveness of previous behaviors. The world continually evolves, sometimes dramatically enough to render prior experiences obsolete.

A similar phenomenon is observed with climate change. Historical data on "100-year floods" has been challenged by regions experiencing multiple such events in a short timeframe, indicating that the underlying conditions have changed.

In HAGT, the solution lies in conserving the 25 Core Resources (TCR) to effectively respond to Black Swan events as they arise.

The Theory of Obstacles (TOO) This theory, fundamental to HAGT, draws from the Theory of Constraints, a management philosophy devised by Israeli physicist Dr. Eliyahu M. Goldratt.

TOO posits that the principles of rational thought, deductive reasoning, and hard sciences can be applied to life decisions. Thus, TOO can be summarized as applying rational thinking to life skills, emphasizing cause and effect to uncover the root causes of multiple outcomes.

The central tenet of TOO is that each system, such as HAGT, typically has one or a few obstacles that hinder its ability to achieve PEEPASA. The overall system's performance can only be enhanced when these obstacles are addressed or mitigated. Obstacles may include machinery, policies, personnel, or market conditions.

To illustrate the concept of constraints and system enhancement:

The power of TOO lies in its capacity to maintain a sharp focus on a specific outcome or end-goal. According to HAGT, the single word that encapsulates the entire TOO philosophy is "FOCUS."

FOCUS consists of two components: what actions should be taken and, equally importantly, what should be avoided.

Whenever TOC is applied to any context—be it choices, individuals, locations, resources, distribution, project management, or service—it provides clear guidance on what actions to pursue and which to refrain from for significant performance improvements.

The Key Takeaway After engaging with this module and implementing its lessons, please revisit Module #1. This will equip you for our upcoming coaching session.

https://asklewis.substack.com/p/my-mentoring-model-module-1

Consider this module as a launchpad for more advanced courses that encompass personal mentoring and coaching.

For more information on intermediate and advanced self-improvement courses, feel free to email me at [email protected]. We can arrange a 15-30 minute conversation to discuss how these courses can simplify your life, transform your mindset, and assist you in addressing specific challenges.

About Lewis Harrison: Lewis has spent over fifty years mentoring and coaching visionaries, elite athletes, thought leaders, and individuals striving for greater effectiveness, efficiency, productivity, and self-awareness. Formerly the host of an NPR-affiliated radio show, he has authored more than twenty best-selling books on self-improvement, personal transformation, and human potential, and has developed numerous classes and seminars on these topics.

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